By Arun K Singh (Former Indian ambassador to US)
The 2024 US presidential elections revealed the consolidation of some trends in US society with longer term consequences for both domestic politics and international engagements.
Trump was in many ways a flawed candidate. Decision making in his first term had been erratic, as was also borne out in subsequent writings and comments of those who had worked closely with him, including his national security advisers H R McMaster and John Bolton. He was twice impeached by the US House of Representatives during his term. He was seen as having egged on the mob to attack the US Capitol in Jan 2021 to prevent the formal certification of his election defeat. He had the dubious distinction of being the first President to be convicted under a criminal charge. Yet he maintained control of the Republican party apparatus over the past four years. Republican congressmen and senators opposed him at the proven peril of losing subsequent primaries. His base remained loyal to him.
Kamala Harris was a historic candidacy, of a first time African-American and Indian-American woman aspiring for the post. Yet, unlike in the case of President Obama in 2008, the majority of African-American and Latino males did not show support for her in pre-poll surveys. Even overall Indian American support for the Democratic candidate was seen as declining from 80% in 2016 for Hillary Clinton to 70% in 2020 for Joe Biden and now 60% in 2024 for someone who partially shared their ethnic origin.
The answer clearly lay in the issues that were agitating voters. State of the economy (jobs, inflation) and illegal immigration were among the top concerns. Despite the Biden-Harris team having incentivised fresh actual or planned investments, including in semiconductors and other high technology areas through the Chips and Science Act, the Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Acts, those who had lost jobs during the post-1990 phase of untrammeled globalisation still felt that the country was "headed in the wrong direction". Covid-induced infusion of money in the economy to minimise recession led to subsequent inflationary tendencies, leading to voter angst.
In this scenario of anxiety, immigrants were seen as competing for jobs and resources. Democrats were seen as weaker in responding to this challenge. The incoming administration will no doubt adopt a tougher approach to illegal immigration. This will have an impact on Indians who have unfortunately been attempting to enter the US through the Mexico or Canadian borders. We will also need to monitor the politics around the H-1B and L visas, despite recognition in US business that they need the continued inflow of skilled persons to remain globally competitive.
There will be a reappraisal of US' international engagements to assess costs and benefits. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led the US to provide more than a billion dollars of economic and military assistance to Ukraine. With the conflict now seen as a stalemate, some influential writing in US is questioning if search for the best solution can be the enemy of a good solution. Trump is expected to push for an end to active conflict. This will be positive from India's point of view since the India-Russia political, defense and economic relationship cannot come under any adversarial assessments.
Trump 1.0 had clearly assessed China as an adversary in its national security and defense strategies. It had revived the Quad, laid out an Indo-Pacific strategy, renamed the Hawaii-based Pacific command as the Indo-Pacific command and declared India as an important partner for the region. It was China that had sucked away US manufacturing jobs through subsidies and built excess capacity, misusing WTO, thus creating Trump's loyal electoral base. Chinese unilateral and assertive actions in South and East China seas and its growing footprint globally are seen as testing US pre- eminence.
The US-India relationship can be expected to consolidate further, despite occasional hiccups and differences. It has been on an upward trajectory since 2000, through Republican and Democratic administrations. In Trump 1.0, despite some acrimony and noise on trade issues, US placed India on STA-1 (Strategic Trade Authorization Level 1) for technology releases on par with its Nato partners and allies. In a departure from the past, Trump authorised the sale of armed drones to India. During the Galwan conflict with China in 2020, US shared information and intelligence, leased two drones for our navy, and provided some urgently required winter clothing for our troops. In the Biden-Harris administration, a major new initiative for cooperation on critical and emerging technologies was launched in AI, quantum, biotech, semiconductors, defense and space. Subsequently, six US companies announced investments in India in semiconductors. US authorised an unprecedented 80% technology transfer to India of the GE F414 jet engine. A new India-US defense acceleration ecosystem (INDUS-X) was initiated bringing together defense startups in both countries. Trump can be expected to build on this, since it is in US interest, but will no doubt give it a different branding to distance the continuing effort from the Biden decisions.
However, there will inevitably be issues on which the two countries will not agree. The 2020 US agreement with the Taliban, Russia-Ukraine conflict, handling of the Pannun issue are recent examples. Statesmanship will lie in managing the differences, while keeping long-term goals and interest in view.
The 2024 US presidential elections revealed the consolidation of some trends in US society with longer term consequences for both domestic politics and international engagements.
Trump was in many ways a flawed candidate. Decision making in his first term had been erratic, as was also borne out in subsequent writings and comments of those who had worked closely with him, including his national security advisers H R McMaster and John Bolton. He was twice impeached by the US House of Representatives during his term. He was seen as having egged on the mob to attack the US Capitol in Jan 2021 to prevent the formal certification of his election defeat. He had the dubious distinction of being the first President to be convicted under a criminal charge. Yet he maintained control of the Republican party apparatus over the past four years. Republican congressmen and senators opposed him at the proven peril of losing subsequent primaries. His base remained loyal to him.
Kamala Harris was a historic candidacy, of a first time African-American and Indian-American woman aspiring for the post. Yet, unlike in the case of President Obama in 2008, the majority of African-American and Latino males did not show support for her in pre-poll surveys. Even overall Indian American support for the Democratic candidate was seen as declining from 80% in 2016 for Hillary Clinton to 70% in 2020 for Joe Biden and now 60% in 2024 for someone who partially shared their ethnic origin.
The answer clearly lay in the issues that were agitating voters. State of the economy (jobs, inflation) and illegal immigration were among the top concerns. Despite the Biden-Harris team having incentivised fresh actual or planned investments, including in semiconductors and other high technology areas through the Chips and Science Act, the Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Acts, those who had lost jobs during the post-1990 phase of untrammeled globalisation still felt that the country was "headed in the wrong direction". Covid-induced infusion of money in the economy to minimise recession led to subsequent inflationary tendencies, leading to voter angst.
In this scenario of anxiety, immigrants were seen as competing for jobs and resources. Democrats were seen as weaker in responding to this challenge. The incoming administration will no doubt adopt a tougher approach to illegal immigration. This will have an impact on Indians who have unfortunately been attempting to enter the US through the Mexico or Canadian borders. We will also need to monitor the politics around the H-1B and L visas, despite recognition in US business that they need the continued inflow of skilled persons to remain globally competitive.
There will be a reappraisal of US' international engagements to assess costs and benefits. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led the US to provide more than a billion dollars of economic and military assistance to Ukraine. With the conflict now seen as a stalemate, some influential writing in US is questioning if search for the best solution can be the enemy of a good solution. Trump is expected to push for an end to active conflict. This will be positive from India's point of view since the India-Russia political, defense and economic relationship cannot come under any adversarial assessments.
Trump 1.0 had clearly assessed China as an adversary in its national security and defense strategies. It had revived the Quad, laid out an Indo-Pacific strategy, renamed the Hawaii-based Pacific command as the Indo-Pacific command and declared India as an important partner for the region. It was China that had sucked away US manufacturing jobs through subsidies and built excess capacity, misusing WTO, thus creating Trump's loyal electoral base. Chinese unilateral and assertive actions in South and East China seas and its growing footprint globally are seen as testing US pre- eminence.
The US-India relationship can be expected to consolidate further, despite occasional hiccups and differences. It has been on an upward trajectory since 2000, through Republican and Democratic administrations. In Trump 1.0, despite some acrimony and noise on trade issues, US placed India on STA-1 (Strategic Trade Authorization Level 1) for technology releases on par with its Nato partners and allies. In a departure from the past, Trump authorised the sale of armed drones to India. During the Galwan conflict with China in 2020, US shared information and intelligence, leased two drones for our navy, and provided some urgently required winter clothing for our troops. In the Biden-Harris administration, a major new initiative for cooperation on critical and emerging technologies was launched in AI, quantum, biotech, semiconductors, defense and space. Subsequently, six US companies announced investments in India in semiconductors. US authorised an unprecedented 80% technology transfer to India of the GE F414 jet engine. A new India-US defense acceleration ecosystem (INDUS-X) was initiated bringing together defense startups in both countries. Trump can be expected to build on this, since it is in US interest, but will no doubt give it a different branding to distance the continuing effort from the Biden decisions.
However, there will inevitably be issues on which the two countries will not agree. The 2020 US agreement with the Taliban, Russia-Ukraine conflict, handling of the Pannun issue are recent examples. Statesmanship will lie in managing the differences, while keeping long-term goals and interest in view.
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