A recent poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute has revealed that Jewish support for the Democratic Party is at its lowest since the Reagan era, as Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to rally voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The survey, carried out between October 5 and 9, included a representative sample of 658 Jewish registered voters across the United States and highlighted growing concerns within the Jewish community regarding antisemitism , Israel, and other policy issues.
Declining support for Democrats among Jewish votersWhile Jewish voters remain predominantly aligned with the Democratic Party, their support is weakening. According to the Manhattan Institute poll, Harris is poised to perform worse among Jewish voters than any Democratic candidate since the 1980s. If the election were held today, the poll indicates that Harris would secure 67% of the Jewish vote, while former President Donald Trump would receive 31%. This shift in support marks a significant departure from past election cycles.
Historically, Jewish voters have shown strong support for Democratic candidates. In 1992, Bill Clinton secured 80% of the Jewish vote over George Bush Sr. However, support has gradually declined; Joe Biden received 68% of the Jewish vote in 2020, while Hillary Clinton won 71% in 2016. The trend of declining Jewish support for Democrats has accelerated since the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas.
Concerns over antisemitism within the Democratic Party
The poll’s findings reveal that Jewish voters are increasingly uneasy about the Democratic Party’s stance on antisemitism. A significant 62% of respondents expressed concern over growing antisemitism within the party. Jesse Arm, Chief of Staff at the Manhattan Institute, noted, “Many are likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms, such as labeling the country ‘genocidal.’ This is evidenced by the fact that Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel—a mere 5% of Jewish voters say they are not supporters of the Jewish state.”
The survey also found that Jewish voters are largely united in their support for Israel, with 86% expressing strong support for the Jewish state. “Security, Israel, and antisemitism” were identified as Harris’s weakest issues relative to Trump among Jewish voters, indicating that these topics are pivotal in shaping Jewish voter preferences ahead of the election.
Diverging views on key issues
Despite the overall decline in support for the Democratic Party, Jewish voters still align with Democrats on specific issues, such as abortion. A majority of Jewish Republicans also described themselves as pro-choice. In contrast, on immigration, crime, and fiscal matters, Jewish voters’ views diverge, showing a mix of moderate and conservative positions. For instance, Jewish voters want increased vetting in the immigration process but are generally supportive of expanding high-skilled immigration.
On crime, Jewish voters are more in line with Republican views, feeling that the nation’s criminal justice system is not tough enough. They are also fiscally moderate, expressing concern over government spending while supporting higher taxes on middle- to upper-income brackets.
Concerns over free speech and university policies
The poll also shed light on Jewish voters' perspectives on free speech and university policies. Jewish respondents expressed support for laws banning people from covering their faces with the intent to conceal their identity in public places, a stance that gained traction following incidents of anti-Israel activists intimidating Jewish students on college campuses and targeting Jewish community members across the U.S.
Additionally, Jewish voters expressed a desire for universities to be held accountable, supporting taxation on university endowments. They also showed a preference for a color-blind society over race-conscious policies, revealing divided opinions on affirmative action and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives.
Denominational differences among Jewish voters
The poll highlighted denominational differences within the Jewish community regarding support for Harris and Trump. Harris’s strongest backing came from Reform and unaffiliated or nondenominational Jews, who are traditionally more aligned with progressive causes. However, her support was notably weaker among Conservative Jewish voters, and Orthodox Jewish voters showed a preference for Trump, leading him by 18 points.
Religious observance also played a role in voter preferences. Among Jewish voters who attend religious services weekly, Harris led Trump by a narrow margin of 51% to 46%. In contrast, those who never attend services overwhelmingly supported Harris, with a 75% to 24% lead over Trump.
Survey methodology and margin of error
The Manhattan Institute conducted the survey using a sample drawn from a national voter file and online panels, ensuring it was weighted to match the demographics of likely Jewish voters in terms of gender, age, and college education. Responses were collected through SMS-to-web and online outreach methods. The poll’s margin of error stands at +/- 3.8%.
As the 2024 election approaches, the poll’s findings suggest that Jewish voters remain crucial yet increasingly divided within the Democratic base. The outcome of this shift could significantly impact the Democratic Party's performance, as their support among Jewish voters is crucial for maintaining voter coalitions in key states.
Declining support for Democrats among Jewish votersWhile Jewish voters remain predominantly aligned with the Democratic Party, their support is weakening. According to the Manhattan Institute poll, Harris is poised to perform worse among Jewish voters than any Democratic candidate since the 1980s. If the election were held today, the poll indicates that Harris would secure 67% of the Jewish vote, while former President Donald Trump would receive 31%. This shift in support marks a significant departure from past election cycles.
Historically, Jewish voters have shown strong support for Democratic candidates. In 1992, Bill Clinton secured 80% of the Jewish vote over George Bush Sr. However, support has gradually declined; Joe Biden received 68% of the Jewish vote in 2020, while Hillary Clinton won 71% in 2016. The trend of declining Jewish support for Democrats has accelerated since the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas.
Concerns over antisemitism within the Democratic Party
The poll’s findings reveal that Jewish voters are increasingly uneasy about the Democratic Party’s stance on antisemitism. A significant 62% of respondents expressed concern over growing antisemitism within the party. Jesse Arm, Chief of Staff at the Manhattan Institute, noted, “Many are likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms, such as labeling the country ‘genocidal.’ This is evidenced by the fact that Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel—a mere 5% of Jewish voters say they are not supporters of the Jewish state.”
The survey also found that Jewish voters are largely united in their support for Israel, with 86% expressing strong support for the Jewish state. “Security, Israel, and antisemitism” were identified as Harris’s weakest issues relative to Trump among Jewish voters, indicating that these topics are pivotal in shaping Jewish voter preferences ahead of the election.
Diverging views on key issues
Despite the overall decline in support for the Democratic Party, Jewish voters still align with Democrats on specific issues, such as abortion. A majority of Jewish Republicans also described themselves as pro-choice. In contrast, on immigration, crime, and fiscal matters, Jewish voters’ views diverge, showing a mix of moderate and conservative positions. For instance, Jewish voters want increased vetting in the immigration process but are generally supportive of expanding high-skilled immigration.
On crime, Jewish voters are more in line with Republican views, feeling that the nation’s criminal justice system is not tough enough. They are also fiscally moderate, expressing concern over government spending while supporting higher taxes on middle- to upper-income brackets.
Concerns over free speech and university policies
The poll also shed light on Jewish voters' perspectives on free speech and university policies. Jewish respondents expressed support for laws banning people from covering their faces with the intent to conceal their identity in public places, a stance that gained traction following incidents of anti-Israel activists intimidating Jewish students on college campuses and targeting Jewish community members across the U.S.
Additionally, Jewish voters expressed a desire for universities to be held accountable, supporting taxation on university endowments. They also showed a preference for a color-blind society over race-conscious policies, revealing divided opinions on affirmative action and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives.
Denominational differences among Jewish voters
The poll highlighted denominational differences within the Jewish community regarding support for Harris and Trump. Harris’s strongest backing came from Reform and unaffiliated or nondenominational Jews, who are traditionally more aligned with progressive causes. However, her support was notably weaker among Conservative Jewish voters, and Orthodox Jewish voters showed a preference for Trump, leading him by 18 points.
Religious observance also played a role in voter preferences. Among Jewish voters who attend religious services weekly, Harris led Trump by a narrow margin of 51% to 46%. In contrast, those who never attend services overwhelmingly supported Harris, with a 75% to 24% lead over Trump.
Survey methodology and margin of error
The Manhattan Institute conducted the survey using a sample drawn from a national voter file and online panels, ensuring it was weighted to match the demographics of likely Jewish voters in terms of gender, age, and college education. Responses were collected through SMS-to-web and online outreach methods. The poll’s margin of error stands at +/- 3.8%.
As the 2024 election approaches, the poll’s findings suggest that Jewish voters remain crucial yet increasingly divided within the Democratic base. The outcome of this shift could significantly impact the Democratic Party's performance, as their support among Jewish voters is crucial for maintaining voter coalitions in key states.
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