Abu Dhabi's population to hit 5.4 million by 2040, but won't lead to traffic woes: Expert explains why

As Abu Dhabi’s population is projected to rise to 5.4 million by 2040, concerns about potential traffic chaos might seem inevitable. However, transport experts say the emirate has not only prepared for this growth but could actually see less traffic congestion over time, thanks to its proactive planning.

Speaking to local media outlet Khaleej Times, Thomas Edelmann, the founder and managing director of RoadSafetyUAE , offered an optimistic outlook. According to Edelmann, Abu Dhabi has demonstrated “a very, very good understanding of how to deal with increased traffic, which is a consequence of increased population.”

He pointed to global congestion ranking data released in January by INRIX, a traffic analytics company, which supports this view. The report revealed that in 2023, the average driver in Abu Dhabi spent just 19 hours in traffic for the entire year, making it one of the least congested cities worldwide. In comparison, drivers in Dubai spent 71 hours in traffic over the same period.

“So, Abu Dhabi is doing a great job so far,” he said.

Planning for Growth: Infrastructure and Technology in Sync
Edelmann explained that congestion is not just an urban problem, it’s a measurable outcome of urban planning, and Abu Dhabi has consistently proven itself capable of aligning infrastructure growth with future demand.

“They will align the efforts of growing the road infrastructure, of growing the technology that’s applied. They have proven that in the past, they will continue doing that,” he said.

A key part of Abu Dhabi’s strategy is the integration of smart technology and artificial intelligence (AI) in urban planning. By running AI-powered simulations, planners can predict where new housing will be built and how that will impact traffic flow.

“Artificial intelligence in this context certainly plays a big role in urban planning,” Edelmann noted. “So, simulations will be run to understand where the emirate will build and expand the housing infrastructure. And as a consequence, traffic streams will be basically showcased, and they will be taken into consideration to plan and expand the existing road infrastructure.”

The Push for Non-Road-Based Mass Transit
While the current system performs well, public appetite for mass transportation that doesn’t depend on roads is growing rapidly.

“The ongoing expansion of the public transportation system, the public mass transportation system, which ideally should not be road-bound, is on top of the wish list of the UAE road users,” Edelmann explained.

Commuters are increasingly looking for rail-bound options such as metros and trains to ease road traffic. Although Abu Dhabi does not currently have a metro system, there have been previous discussions about introducing rail services that would complement its existing bus and taxi network.

This ambition aligns with the broader UAE vision of reducing car dependency and investing in sustainable and efficient public transit options.

Comparisons with Other Emirates
While Dubai and Sharjah often make headlines for traffic issues, Edelmann believes Abu Dhabi stands apart.

“Abu Dhabi is blessed in a way. We have data that was published not so long ago about the traffic. It is one of the safest capital cities in the world. You know the bottlenecks in the UAE, and Abu Dhabi is not one of them. So, I don't foresee any impact,” he said.

He concluded with a firm endorsement of the emirate’s transport management:

“It is very fair to assume that they will be on top of developments. I think there's a very strong message of the Abu Dhabi authorities really having a very, very good grip of what's happening, what has happened in the past and also in the future.”