2024 US election: Four scenarios that could define the outcome

As the 2024 US presidential election begins, the political landscape is marked by deep uncertainty. Both major parties face unprecedented challenges that make a clear victory seem unlikely on paper.

Democratic dilemma

President Joe Biden's approval ratings are troubling for the Democratic Party. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40% of voters approve of Biden’s performance, with a mere 28% believing the country is on the right track. Historically, such low numbers have spelled doom for the incumbent party in presidential elections.

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Republican hurdle

For Republicans, the obstacle is of a different nature but equally significant. Former President Donald Trump, a central figure in the race, carries the burden of multiple criminal indictments, including attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Despite his legal troubles, Trump remains a polarizing figure with a loyal base.

Key issues and vulnerabilities

Both parties have additional challenges. For Republicans, abortion remains a contentious issue following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade. Democrats, meanwhile, grapple with immigration, an area where their policies have faced criticism.

Despite these hurdles, one candidate will emerge victorious. The question remains: which way will the pendulum swing?

Four scenarios that could define the outcome

1. The repudiation
If Vice President Kamala Harris secures a decisive victory, it could signal a strong repudiation of Trump and his brand of politics. Democrats have consistently outperformed expectations in recent elections, fueled by voter concerns over democracy and abortion rights. Harris holds a notable lead in these areas, with a 13-point advantage on abortion and a 7-point lead on democracy in the latest polls.

2. The repeat: 2020
A repeat of the 2020 election is a plausible scenario. In this case, a close contest across battleground states could unfold, reminiscent of the razor-thin margins that defined Biden's victory. Harris might edge out Trump, but even slight shifts in voter turnout among key demographics could tip the scales in Trump's favor.

3. The repeat: 2022
Alternatively, the election might mirror the 2022 midterms, characterized by regional and demographic swings. While national polls indicate a tighter race, Harris shows resilience in battleground states. Trump, however, is performing well in areas like New York and Florida, where Republicans excelled in the midterms.

4. The realignment
A decisive Trump victory could herald a significant political realignment. Despite unfavorable polling, Trump’s base, driven by less engaged voters, could turn out in droves. This scenario would not only mark a victory for Trump but potentially reshape the political landscape, highlighting the enduring impact of his populist movement.

As the election approaches, the outcome remains highly uncertain. Whether it results in a repudiation of Trump, a repeat of past elections, or a political realignment, the stakes are high, and the implications could be far-reaching. One thing is certain: the 2024 election will be one for the history books.