Polling expert Sir John Curtice issues brutal prediction for Tories about next election

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has warned that the Tories will win fewer seats than even the Liberal Democrats at the next election, in a brutal prediction for Kemi Badenoch. The top forecaster said that, based on current polls, because of the concentration of Lib Dem votes in certain seats, they will "undoubtedly" win more seats than the Conservatives.

He was speaking at a fringe event at the party's conference in Manchester, as he explained the current predicament for Kemi Badenoch. Sir John warned: "The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote, and the electoral system is now treating you like it treated the Liberal Democrats. "And so the Liberal Democrats are just behind you in the polls, they are going to almost undoubtedly win more seats than you."

He added that the Tories need to make it back to "base camp" before even thinking about trying to climb the electoral "Himalayas" and return to government.

The latest polls put the Tories in third place, just ahead of the Lib Dems by a couple of points. However the Tories' vote is much more spread out across the country, compared to Ed Davey's domination in the South West.

Sir John explained that Boris Johnson's 2019 coalition of voters has now completely fractured, with Reform taking most of his voters.

"The Johnsonian coalition of 2019 has been ripped from underneath you by Reform. And so that realignment of British politics that occurred in 2019, it's still there, don't think that Brexit doesn't matter in our politics. It's fundamental.

"But your problem now is that basically you do not now occupy either the pro-EU or the anti-EU space."

He warned that there is "serious" potential now that the Tories lose their historic role as a "significant governing party" in Britain.

Giving some advice to Ms Badenoch, Sir John said the Tories' best hope is to focus on being the party of fiscal prudence and sound economics, rather than trying to "out-Reform Reform" on immigration and culture issues.

"An alternative tactical battle, depending on the geography, may be to think about going around the flanks at the side. Which are perhaps not quite so well defended.

"And given that you are losing ground, not just on immigration but on the economy... but at least on the economy, there is still a modicum of trust in you amongst 2024 Conservative voters. This is the issue, as it were, they look as though they might be more likely to be won back."

Last week YouGov published a bombshell MRP poll forecasting that Reform is on course to win 311 seats, falling just 15 shy of an overall majority. By contrast the Tories would be further wiped out, losing 76 of their existing seats and being reduced to a rump of just 45. This would be far fewer than 78 seats for the LibDems and 144 for Labour.