Keir Starmer's conference hell as Reform UK continue to trounce Labour

Labour's civil war continues as its make-or-break conference gets underway. To say the prime minister's back is up against the wall would be an understatement. Two major election seat projections last week have Nigel Farage on course for Sir Keir Starmer's job. The first poll - from YouGov - has Reform UK on course to have 311 MPs if an election was held right now. True, that is short of the 326 needed for a Commons majority. But not only could Farage - in principle - enter some sort of pact with the Tories if this came to pass.

More crucially, the 311 is only a central projection: YouGov reckons it could be as high as 342, well clear of the magic 326. Worse news for Sir Keir: three quarters of Reform gains come from Labour. But the bad news doesn't stop there. A second seat projection - this time from More in Common - gives Farage an outright majority of 373 seats.

To rub salt in the wound, opinion polls from Find Out Now and Opinium in the last few days have Reform 16 and 10 points of Labour, respectively.

The PM might be trying to regain authority on the eve of his conference speech by labelling Reform's plan to end indefinite leave to remain for foreigners racist and immoral.

Although some data seems to indicate wariness about this plan, the polls don't lie. Farage is giving the punters what they want.

If some Starmer critics are correct that Labour will actively lose votes from trying to ape Reform one wonders why the government is bleeding votes to Farage.

Okay, maybe voters are clamouring for genuine Lefty policies and, trusting Farage more on immigration anyway, are shifting en masse to Reform but would come back to Labour if only Sir Keir went all Tony Benn.

Enter Andy Burnham. The Manchester mayor and 'king of the North' is now seen as a challenger to the under-fire PM. Quite how this would work is uncertain since Burnham is no longer an MP and there's no way Sir Keir is smoothing a path for him.

Presumably Labour rebels would oust Sir Keir and that would be Burnham's ticket in, with the Manchester mayor offered a (moderately) safe seat (rumour has it, Gorton and Denton).

This all feels rather end of days for Labour. But perhaps the risk for Farage is that leadership changes for the Conservatives and Labour undermine Reform's lead.

After all, polling by More in Common found while Gorton and Denton leans Reform now, with Burnham it's more likely to go for Labour.

Extrapolate the Gorton seat nationally and Labour could be on course to reverse its losses. Still, this assumes Burnham wouldn't lose favour with the public as fast as Sir Keir.

Mind you, if recent seat projections make grim reading for Labour, then the Tories should look away now. Both YouGov and More in Common have the Conservatives in fourth place behind the Lib Dems. Their best-case scenario is being Farage's junior partner in a coalition or pact.

But just as a new Labour leader could sting Farage so too could a new Tory chief. As for Burnham, while I suspect any poll boost for say Robert Jenrick would be short-lived, politics is a funny old game.

The electorate are a fickle lot, and the election is still slated for 2029. Much can change in four years. While YouGov suggests Farage is making his biggest gains from Labour, other pollsters suggest Reform has won over the Tory Brexit crowd and essentially become the new vehicle for British conservatism.

Either way, Farage cannot be complacent. Facing Burnham and Jenrick in 2029 might be a taller order than Sir Keir and Badenoch.

Still, any poll boost Labour or the Tories got from leadership changes are likely to be short-lived if issues like open-door immigration and rampant crime continue.

And will the 'king of the North' really get a grip on these? As of now, only one man is heading to Downing Street at the next election and it isn't Andy Burnham.

As the Labour civil war continues - and as the Tories stagger on life support - Farage in Number 10 looks more likely than ever. But it still ain't over til it's over, and no one knows this better than the Reform leader.