Visa woes ahead: Will India-Canada standoff disrupt visa services?

The diplomatic rift between India and Canada has caused significant uncertainty for visa applicants, particularly students and families with ties to both countries. Amid the strained relationship, India expelled six Canadian diplomats and announced the withdrawal of its High Commissioner, following Canada's withdrawal of over two-thirds of its diplomats. The fallout may impact visa processes further, affecting students, families, and businesses alike. As tensions rise, the strained diplomatic ties could hinder direct air connectivity and lead to fewer visa approvals.

Visa Uncertainty Following Diplomatic Fallout
The already tense relationship between India and Canada has worsened in recent months, impacting visa services and straining diplomatic channels. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement that India "reserves the right to take further steps" after the Canadian government accused Indian diplomats of involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Nijjar. Ottawa's charges have led to the expulsion of Canadian diplomats and the reduction of diplomatic presence in India. This reduction in diplomatic staff may cause delays and limitations in the visa processes for Canadian citizens and could affect Indian students planning to study in Canada.

After the initial fallout, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, including its High Commissioner, which further strained relations. Canada had already reduced its diplomatic presence since last year, and now visa approvals are becoming even more challenging. This downsizing could potentially lead to a further cut in visa allowances, which are already fewer than in previous years. Moreover, many families in Punjab, where the majority of Indian immigrants to Canada come from, are concerned about their ability to secure visas to visit relatives.

Indian Diaspora Impacted
A large portion of the visa demand between India and Canada comes from the Indian diaspora, with many people travelling to meet family members. After Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian agents of involvement in Nijjar’s assassination, India responded by suspending visa services to Canadian citizens for a month.

This suspension caused difficulties for Indian-origin Canadians who needed to visit their families. The situation has since improved, as India gradually resumed visa services in November 2023, prioritizing business and medical visas. However, the uncertainty surrounding visa processes continues, as relations between the two countries remain strained.

According to a PTI report, several families in Punjab, particularly in areas like Kapurthala, Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, and Nawanshahr, have been directly affected. According to local reports, individuals like Kunal Saini, a 21-year-old student from Hoshiarpur, fear that their aspirations to study in Canada may not be realised. Kunal expressed his disappointment, saying, "My dream of studying in Canada feels shattered." His sister, Kanika Saini, who moved to Canada on a student visa three years ago, has shared the challenges that students are already facing, including the Canadian government's stricter limits on work hours for international students.

Canada Caps Student Visas
Earlier this year, Canada reduced the number of international student visas, capping them at 360,000 for two years—a 35% decrease from the previous year. This cut primarily impacted Indian students, who make up more than 41% of Canada’s international student population. The number of Indian students travelling to Canada for higher education has now dropped significantly. The visa cap, combined with the diplomatic tensions, is causing further anxiety among Indian families who have children studying or planning to study in Canada.

In addition to this, Canada has been turning away more immigrants at its borders. According to government data from July 2024, 5,853 foreign travellers were refused entry, marking the highest number since 2019. On average, 3,727 foreign travellers were turned away each month during the first seven months of 2024—a 20% increase from last year. Many of these travellers included students, workers, and tourists. In some cases, visa-holders were even deemed inadmissible after arriving, further compounding the problems for those seeking entry.

Worsening Diplomatic Ties and Economic Impact
Amid growing diplomatic tensions, the strained relationship between India and Canada has left businesses and families alike in a precarious situation. The Indian government’s decision to recall High Commissioner Sanjay Verma, alongside other diplomats, further escalated the diplomatic standoff. Ottawa’s allegations, linking Indian officials to the assassination of Nijjar, have been met with strong pushback from New Delhi, calling the charges "absurd and baseless."

Arvind Sharma, a shop owner in Hoshiarpur, voiced concerns over the uncertainty, as his son Gopal Sharma, a Canadian permanent resident, is directly affected by the visa challenges. Arvind fears that visiting his son might now be difficult, saying, "The diplomatic standoff has made it uncertain if I will be able to secure a visa to visit my son."

Similarly, Rajesh Marwaha from Kapurthala, whose son recently moved to Canada on a study visa, echoed similar sentiments. He said, "I am worried about how this situation will affect my son’s future." Many families in the region share these concerns, particularly as Canada remains one of the most popular destinations for Indian immigrants.

Economic Consequences for NRIs and Businesses
The diplomatic conflict has also started to impact business activity in India, particularly in regions with a large Non-Resident Indian ( NRI) population. Inderpal Singh, a travel agent in Kapurthala, noted that many NRIs from Canada might postpone their visits to India due to the visa delays. He said, "There is already a waiting period of four to six months for visitor visas, and with the current diplomatic row, we expect this to increase."

Local shop owners in Punjab, who typically see a boom in business during the NRI visit season, have also started feeling the effects of the strained ties. One anonymous shop owner in Phagwara said, "The season of NRI visits to their homeland has begun, but the bitterness in the India-Canada relationship will cause uncertainty, and many NRIs may defer their visits."

The tension between India and Canada has broader implications beyond just visa restrictions. The two countries, which have long-standing economic and social ties, are now facing a rift that has affected immigration, trade, and diplomatic relations. Canada remains a top destination for Indian immigrants, especially for students and workers. According to the National Foundation for American Policy ( NFAP), the number of Indians immigrating to Canada increased by 326% between 2013 and 2023. Indian enrolment at Canadian universities also surged, rising from 2,181 in 2000 to 128,928 in 2021.

However, the growing diplomatic crisis and stricter immigration policies in Canada are now causing a significant shift in this trend. As reported by Reuters, Immigration Minister Marc Miller, speaking on the visa cap, said, "Canadians want a system that is not out of control." This is part of Canada’s broader effort to limit the number of temporary residents, including international students and low-wage workers—many of whom are Indian.