Pune | Kolkata: India is likely to get above-normal rains this monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department ( IMD) said Tuesday.
Senior industry executives say a good monsoon will help temper food inflation, revive rural demand, boost sales of fast-moving consumer goods, propelling the industry to an estimated 11-12% growth this fiscal year, from last year's 7-8%.
"The monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal," said N Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. He also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the June-to-September monsoon season.
The country is expected to get 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall this year, crucial for robust sowing of key kharif crops like pulses, rice, oilseeds, maize, cotton and vegetables.
Consumer goods manufacturers expect plentiful rains to spark a revival in sales of mass-consumption items. "Good monsoon leads to good rural sales in the third and the fourth quarters and during the festive season. It leads to a spike in demand for mass segment and entry-level products," said Kamal Nandi, head of appliances at Godrej Enterprises.
Industry sales of white goods have been subdued over the past ten quarters with urban areas underperforming rural markets in FMCG sales.
"Monsoon is the single most important factor for rural demand. Good rainfall also ensures a good yield, which would keep food prices under control," said Mayank Shah, vice president, Parle Products. Shah estimates the Indian FMCG industry to grow at 11-12% this fiscal year, up from 7-8% in FY25.
Economists however caution that only knowing the amount of monsoon rains is not sufficient to ascertain its impact on agriculture.
"Forecast of above normal monsoon is the first positive signal for the upcoming agriculture season. But more than the quantum of the rainfall, what is more important is how well is the rainfall distributed over time, season and geography," said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at ratings agency Crisil. "There are other climatic shocks like the increasing frequency of heat waves that can affect the agriculture sector."
Senior industry executives say a good monsoon will help temper food inflation, revive rural demand, boost sales of fast-moving consumer goods, propelling the industry to an estimated 11-12% growth this fiscal year, from last year's 7-8%.
"The monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal," said N Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. He also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the June-to-September monsoon season.
The country is expected to get 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall this year, crucial for robust sowing of key kharif crops like pulses, rice, oilseeds, maize, cotton and vegetables.
Consumer goods manufacturers expect plentiful rains to spark a revival in sales of mass-consumption items. "Good monsoon leads to good rural sales in the third and the fourth quarters and during the festive season. It leads to a spike in demand for mass segment and entry-level products," said Kamal Nandi, head of appliances at Godrej Enterprises.
Industry sales of white goods have been subdued over the past ten quarters with urban areas underperforming rural markets in FMCG sales.
"Monsoon is the single most important factor for rural demand. Good rainfall also ensures a good yield, which would keep food prices under control," said Mayank Shah, vice president, Parle Products. Shah estimates the Indian FMCG industry to grow at 11-12% this fiscal year, up from 7-8% in FY25.
Economists however caution that only knowing the amount of monsoon rains is not sufficient to ascertain its impact on agriculture.
"Forecast of above normal monsoon is the first positive signal for the upcoming agriculture season. But more than the quantum of the rainfall, what is more important is how well is the rainfall distributed over time, season and geography," said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at ratings agency Crisil. "There are other climatic shocks like the increasing frequency of heat waves that can affect the agriculture sector."
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